CEAT×Saivyy a proposal, narrated by Nazar 🦉
90-day pilot →
For CEAT Ltd. · Office of the CMO · 2W & Truck/Bus replacement · Nov 2026

Your brand earns the walk-in. Don't let the shelf lose it.

This is a fitment-to-fulfilment layer that sits on top of CEAT's existing ERP, DMS and dealer app. It tells every counter the exact tyre the customer needs, where the nearest one is, and what to stock next week.

Show me the problem ↓Jump to the dashboards
+26%Q2 FY27 revenue, ₹4,762 Cr
−40%Q2 FY27 net profit, ₹112 Cr
66,700+dealers + sub-dealers to plan for
↻ drag to spin the tyrea CEAT 2W tyre,
rendered live in 3D ✎
Namaste! I'm Nazar. I keep an eye on every CEAT shelf, from a sub-dealer in Sangamner to a truck depot in Namakkal. Scroll with me. I'll show you where the sale slips away, and then the dashboards that catch it.
1 The moment of truth

Two counters. One evening. No visibility.

Both stories are illustrative, but every dealer you ask will recognise them. Read the red panels.

The Pulsar rear that never got sold 19:40 · SUB-DEALER · SANGAMNER, MH

01

A farmer rides in on a Pulsar 150 twin-disc. He saw CEAT's cricket ad last night and asks for a "CEAT back tyre".

02 100/90120/80?

The shelf has 100/90-17. His variant needs 120/80-17. Nobody checks the variant.

03 "kal aayega"

He calls the distributor: "kal aayega" ("it comes tomorrow"). The customer walks 200 m to a competitor.

04 0?!

No system logs the enquiry, so CEAT's data shows zero demand for 120/80-17 in Sangamner.

The fleet that switched brands, axle by axle 06:10 · TRUCK DEALER · NAMAKKAL, TN

01 × 40

A fleet owner with 40 multi-axle trucks has 12 drive tyres due and wants CEAT 295/90R20.

02 rib ✓ stockdrive ✗

The dealer has rib (steer) stock in that size but no drive pattern. The size shows in stock but the axle can't use it.

03 other brand

Trucks can't wait for the depot, so he fits a competitor's drive tyres and runs mixed brands.

04 ₹₹₹

CEAT loses the fleet's next three replacement cycles, about ₹40 lakh of lifetime value.

The trap

A forecast can't learn from sales it never saw. Each unlogged "not available" teaches the plan to stock even less of what customers asked for. So the fix has to start at the counter, before the planning engine.

· Meet the customers

Six people. Six different ways a tyre sale slips away.

Pick a person. Then flip between Today and With Nazar to see the same morning go differently.

I drew them all myself. Hoot. They're illustrative, but every CEAT TM has met each one this month.

Their morning

    2 Why this quarter

    Growth is strong. Margin needs it to convert.

    I read CEAT's last two earnings calls. Six numbers on my notes made this urgent.
    9.5%
    EBITDA margin · Q2 FY27

    Down about 400 bps year on year as West Asia pushed up raw-material costs.

    → a tyre at the wrong dealer costs more to carry
    Q2 FY27 results, 14 Oct 2026
    ~8%
    price growth · more hikes in Q3

    Each announced hike makes dealers pre-buy, which inflates sell-in.

    → plans built on sell-in over-order right after the hike
    Q2 FY27 earnings call
    2-digit
    2W replacement growth, rural-led

    Growth is fastest at sub-dealers, which have no DMS and no stock signal.

    → the growth is at the edge you can't see
    H2 FY27 outlook · "high-teens" in Q3 FY26
    ₹1,400 Cr
    FY27 capex · 2W & TBR

    Chennai and Nagpur are expanding radial and two-wheeler capacity.

    → new capacity needs the channel to pull it through
    Q2 FY27 call
    1 lakh
    outlet ambition

    5,700+ dealers and 61,000+ sub-dealers today, heading toward about 1 lakh outlets.

    → no one can plan 1 lakh shelves by phone
    Company commentary / equity research
    1–2 qtrs
    working capital normalisation

    Management has committed to normalising working capital.

    → channel inventory is where that cash sits
    Q2 FY27 earnings call
    3 Size the leak

    How much demand is CEAT already paying for, then losing?

    The defaults are deliberately cautious. Week 1 of the pilot swaps them for CEAT's real DMS data.

    Two-wheeler counters

    Out of 5,700 dealers and 61,000+ sub-dealers
    Wrong size on the shelf, unknown variant, or "kal aayega"

    Truck & bus

    A truck enquiry is often 2–12 tyres
    ANNUAL DEMAND LEAKING AT THE COUNTER
    ₹0Cr / yr
    Two-wheelerTruck & bus
    Recoverable revenue per year—
    leak = counters × lost enquiries × ₹ per enquiry × 52 weeks (2W) or 12 months (truck)
    Illustrative until checked against CEAT secondary-sales data.
    4 The solution, in one line

    From "which tyre?" to "it's on the shelf", in five steps.

    Each step names who uses it, where they see it, and what it decides. Then I'll show you each one live.
    STEP 1 · CAPTURE

    Every enquiry logged

    A 10-second log at the counter records the vehicle, the position, and whether the sale was served or lost.

    Who
    Counter staff
    Where
    Dealer app or WhatsApp
    STEP 2 · FitIQ

    Exact fitment

    Matches vehicle, variant and axle to the exact CEAT SKU, so a 100/90 never goes to a 120/80 bike.

    Who
    Counter staff, TM
    Decides
    SKU + alternatives
    STEP 3 · ShelfSense

    Stock nearby

    Shows live stock at this counter, nearby shops and the depot, ranked by how fast each can reach the customer.

    Who
    Counter, Sales head
    Decides
    Fit, transfer or reserve
    STEP 4 · DemandPulse

    Forecast on sell-out

    Forecasts by SKU × counter × week, adjusted for festive, harvest, monsoon, campaigns and price hikes.

    Who
    Supply-chain planner
    Decides
    How much, where, when
    STEP 5 · FlowPlan

    Right stock moves

    Picks between a shop-to-shop transfer, a depot allocation or a draft PO. A human approves each one.

    Who
    Planner, TM, fleets
    Decides
    Move vs buy
    Plugs into CEAT's ERP, DMS & dealer appNo new app for dealersCEAT owns all dataHindi · मराठी · தமிழ் on WhatsAppHumans approve every order
    · For the rider · Snap & Fit on WhatsApp

    "Which tyre do I need?" Just send a photo.

    Most riders don't know their tyre size, but it's printed on the sidewall. The customer snaps it on CEAT's WhatsApp, and Nazar reads it, finds stocked shops nearby, and books the fitment.

    Pick a sidewall and press Scan. This is Priya's Activa from the last chapter, and I read sidewalls faster than she reads her group chat.
    Press Scan. Your tyre size, the right CEAT pattern and the nearest stocked shops show up here. ✨
    1 · Snap

    A photo of the sidewall. No forms and no size knowledge needed.

    2 · Read

    FitIQ decodes the size, load and speed index, and matches the CEAT SKU.

    3 · Book

    Pick up at a stocked shop nearby, or choose doorstep fitment through CEAT's TyresNmore partner network.

    4 · Remind

    A km-based reminder before the tread wears out, plus a 10-second coin test, so the next sale comes back to CEAT.

    5 Dashboard · the dealer's phone

    Sangamner again, with the system switched on.

    Pick a bike. FitIQ gives the exact size, ShelfSense finds the nearest stock, and the customer gets a WhatsApp ETA before leaving the counter.

    Try Pulsar 150 twin-disc → Rear. That's our farmer from panel 1. Then watch the customer's WhatsApp chat update.
    CEAT Dealer App · FitIQShree Ganesh Tyres, Sangamner · counter #SGT-0412
    EXACT FITMENT
    —
    —
    FULFILMENT OPTIONS · FASTEST FIRST

    Demo sizes are public OE fitments. Production FitIQ uses only CEAT's approved fitment master. Stock and shop names are simulated.

    6 Dashboard · replacement sales head

    India has two stock problems at the same time.

    Red counters are running out. Amber counters are holding cash in excess stock. They're often 200 km apart, and today nobody connects them.

    Click any column on the 3D map, or a row in the action queue. Approving a row moves the fill-rate KPI.
    CEAT Channel OSReplacement › All India › Two-wheeler · Mon 2 Nov 2026 · Wk 45Head of Replacement SalesSIMULATED DATA
    <10 days ⚠healthy ✓>35 days ₹CEAT plant
    height = weekly sell-out · colour = days of cover · drag to rotate

    Today's action queue ranked by revenue at risk · approve to send to the dealer and depot

    PriorityCounter / nodeIssueRecommended action₹ at stake
    7 Dashboard · supply-chain planner

    Plan on sell-out, not sell-in. Then watch the price hike stop hurting.

    The grey line is today's plan, the average of the last four weeks of sell-in. The orange line is DemandPulse. Toggle the price hike and see which one over-orders.
    DemandPulsePlanning › Nashik distributor › 12-week horizonSupply-chain plannerSIMULATED DATA

    Stock projection

    Forecast sell-out (units)Stock · today's planStock · DemandPulseStock-out week (today's plan)
    · The tyre year

    Twelve months, twelve different customers.

    Customer needs change with harvest, monsoon, festivals and fiscal year-end, and DemandPulse pre-stocks for each moment before it arrives. Click a tread block, or let it roll.

    Yes, the calendar is a tyre. Each tread block is a month, and the hub shows what customers feel and what I pre-stock.
    8 Dashboard · FleetDesk for truck & bus

    Same size. Different axle. Different tyre.

    Namakkal again. FleetDesk knows each anchor fleet's duty and km, predicts when every axle falls due, and reserves the right pattern at the depot before the owner calls anyone else.

    Pick a fleet, then an axle. The axle lights up on the 3D truck and the pattern changes with it.
    FleetDeskTruck & bus › Tamil Nadu › Namakkal–Salem–Erode corridorTruck dealer + CEAT TBR teamSIMULATED DATA

    Tyres due by week ·

    SteerDriveTrailer

    Anchor fleets in the corridor click a fleet to load it

    FleetDutyTruckskm / monthCEAT shareDue · 90 daysSwitch risk

    Pattern-to-axle mapping is illustrative, based on CEAT's public X3 truck range naming. CEAT's TBR technical team validates it in week 1. Fleet names are fictional.

    9 Dashboard · the CMO cockpit

    Did the campaign create demand the shelf couldn't serve?

    For the first time, brand spend links to counter outcomes: what each media flight pulled in, how much was served, and where competitors took the walk-ins CEAT paid for.

    This is the view built for you. Hover the heat grid: each cell is one campaign SKU's availability in one district.
    CMO CockpitBrand › Cricket-season flight · 1 Oct – 15 Nov 2026 › Maharashtra (pilot state)Office of the CMOSIMULATED DATA

    From campaign to fitted CEAT tyre counter enquiries, last 6 weeks

    Why enquiries were lost logged at the counter · share of lost

    Two-thirds of losses are stock and fitment problems, not price. Better media can't fix those, but this layer can.

    Campaign-SKU availability by district % of counters with the SKU in stock on the day of the enquiry

    LeaderTheir question todayWhat they getKPI they own
    CEO / MD"We grew 26%. Why didn't profit follow?"Recovered demand with no extra media spend. New Chennai and Nagpur capacity pulled through to the right counters.Recovered revenue ₹ Cr
    CMO"Did our campaign demand get served?"Campaign-SKU availability by district before and during every flight. Walk-in → fitment conversion becomes a brand KPI.Walk-in → CEAT fitment %
    CFO"Where is channel inventory, and is it the right stock?"Inventory value and age by node. Transfers replace new POs. The price-hike pre-buy cycle is visible and damped.Channel inventory days
    Sales head"Which dealers should my TMs visit this week?"A ranked action queue, one-tap transfers, and fleet alerts weeks before tyres fall due.Fill rate · fleet retention
    Supply chain"Is this spike real, or pre-buying?"Sell-out-based forecasts with explainable drivers, and TBR allocation by axle pattern.WMAPE · depot fill rate
    Dealer"Bhai, abhi chahiye." ("I need it now.")Exact fitment in 10 seconds, stock at 3 nearby shops, all on WhatsApp in their language.Sales saved / month
    10 The 90-day pilot

    Two clusters. Twelve weeks. A control group keeps us honest.

    One cluster tests the 2W velocity game and the other the truck value game. Finance signs off the readout, not us.
    CLUSTER A · TWO-WHEELER

    Nashik–Ahmednagar belt, Maharashtra

    About 25 dealers and 300 sub-dealers, including Sangamner. A rural, harvest-driven market with heavy commuter and Pulsar-class demand, close to the Nashik and Ambernath plants. Control: a matched Vidarbha cluster.

    CLUSTER B · TRUCK & BUS

    Namakkal–Salem–Erode corridor, Tamil Nadu

    One of India's densest truck-ownership belts. About 40 truck dealers and 25 anchor fleets, served from the Chennai plant and depot. Control: a matched Madurai corridor.

    WEEK 0–2

    Data handshake

    • Read-only access to ERP sell-in, DMS secondary sales and dealer-app logs
    • Clean the fitment master
    • Freeze baseline KPIs
    Gate: baseline signed by Sales & Finance
    WEEK 3–5

    Engines in sandbox

    • FitIQ on the full 2W and TBR range
    • DemandPulse back-tested on 18 months
    • WhatsApp flows in Marathi and Tamil
    Gate: forecast beats today's plan in back-test
    WEEK 6–10

    Live in the field

    • Counters log every enquiry
    • Weekly transfer and allocation recommendations, approved by humans
    • Monday war-room with TMs
    Gate: 70%+ weekly active counters
    WEEK 11–12

    Prove & decide

    • Pilot vs control readout
    • Board-ready business case
    • Wave plan for 66,700+ counters
    Gate: go / no-go on national rollout

    What we'll measure (hypotheses, measured against control)

    +8–12 ptsCounter fill rateEnquiries served on the spot or the same day
    70%+Lost-sale captureEnquiries made visible to the forecast
    −15–20%Channel inventory daysDealer and depot cover
    −25%Forecast errorWMAPE, SKU × node × week
    −50%Fitment errorsWrong-size issues and returns

    What we need from CEAT

    • A sponsor from the Office of the CMO and a sales co-sponsor
    • One TM per cluster, about 4 hours a week
    • One supply-chain planner for weekly approvals
    • Read-only access to ERP, DMS, dealer app and fitment master

    What Saivyy commits

    • A dedicated pod: product lead, 2 ML engineers, 2 integration engineers, field enablement
    • Data stays in a CEAT-controlled cloud tenant, handled in line with the DPDP Act
    • No changes to CEAT's core systems during the pilot
    • A fixed pilot fee, with success-linked pricing for scale-up
    11 The decision

    Every walk-in your brand earns should leave on a CEAT tyre.

    The ask is one sponsor, two clusters and twelve weeks, with a readout signed by Finance. If the numbers don't move, CEAT still keeps a clean baseline and its first-ever lost-sale dataset.

    Replay from the top
    Nazar na lage on that growth. Let's make sure it reaches the margin too. 🦉
    Sources (public, accessed Nov 2026): Q2 FY27 results · Q2 FY27 earnings call summary · Q2 FY26 call summary · Network: 5,700+ dealers, 61,000+ sub-dealers · 1 lakh outlet ambition · Replacement ~53% of FY25 revenue · CEAT X3 truck range
    An independent proposal by Saivyy Technologies, not an official CEAT document. Comic vignettes, shop and fleet names, and all dashboard figures are illustrative and get replaced with CEAT data during the pilot.